Sunday, July 19, 2009

Plants and the economy

There seems to be lots of plant (or farming) terms as analogies for our economy.

Optimists have been talking of "green shoots" since almost 6 months ago. Roubini didnt think that's likely (at least not as of May). He thought its more "yellow weeds", that could potentially turn into "brown manure" (now that's going to stink!). Faber, another Dr Doom, maintained that "ultimate crisis" has yet to arrive. (Sorry I know this isnt a "plant" - but you cant get more pessimistic than an ultimate crisis...worth the record here)

But last week, Roubini said the worse of the financial crisis is over, and the US economy will come out of a recession by 2009 year-end.

Seems getting a consensus on the economy is as difficult as having a sunny nice weekend in HK these days. But to extend the plant analogy, dont you see different plants in different locales of the world? The same way that July is winter in Australia and summer in Japan, on the economy, you will see regions like China emerging from the recesssion sooner than anyone else (hence green shoots - or bamboos?). You see regions like UK or Eastern Europe still in deep troubles (yellow weed at best!). But even within these troubled regions, you will see "cactus" that grows in extreme weather!

The analogy goes on, and you can see the world economy as one big "garden" I guess...

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